Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Dayton Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemploymentf increases will continue at their accelerates pace into the third quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitab Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble is projected tolose 6,000 to 7,00 jobs in the third quarter. That wouldf drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsty quarter of the year, a 2 percenr decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayto n area has longrelied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sector fallinfrom 42,300 in the firsgt quarter of this year to 36,10 by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percenr drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hitin particular, Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitinv to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and servicre employment are also expectedto decrease. Retail employmeny is expected to dropto 39,10 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsg quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servicd employment, which includes financial service, busines s service, utilities and leisure is projected to decreaseto 324,200 by the thirdf quarter, down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearlu 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasant time forthe region,” Traynor Construction employment is expected to rise as a part of seasonapl employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periodf last year. One area of employmentg that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthy care.
In fact, Traynotr said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirdf quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firstg quarter. He said the rate of declins in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negativew through the third quarter and maybe into the fourtyh quarter of this Even when GDP does become positive again, it will take some time for employmentr to pick up because it is a lagging indicator of economic recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaintyt still on the national as businesses try to determine the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not goingv awayanytime soon.
“Thise is something we’re going to be livinb with for quitea while, well into next he said.